GLOBAL MARKETS-U.S. dollar, stocks climb as Yellen signals rate hike coming

Dear Viewers,

NEW YORK Global stock indexes rose along with the U.S. dollar on Thursday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank could raise interest rates "relatively soon."

Yellen, who testified on the economic outlook before the congressional Joint Economic Committee, indicated little had changed following the victory of Donald Trump in the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election.

She said she intended to serve out her term, which ends in 2018, and indicated the Fed remained on track to raise rates at its meeting next month.

Expectations have been high among investors that the Fed will raise rates in December.

The dollar receded earlier in the day from a 13-1/2 year peak, though it turned higher after upbeat U.S. economic data stoked expectations of an acceleration in U.S. economic expansion in the fourth quarter.

The dollar index .DXY, tracking the greenback relative to a basket of six foreign currencies, extended gains in U.S. afternoon trading following Yellen's comments and was last up 0.5 percent.

U.S. stocks, which rallied after Republican Donald Trump's surprise White House win on the potential for economic stimulus, edged up, led by a 1.3 percent gain in financials .SPSY, which benefit from higher rates.

"A December rate hike is priced in. A number of Fed speakers have indicated that and they want the market to be prepared for when they do," said Erik Wytenus, global investment specialist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

"The Fed, though, is sensitive to the strength of the dollar and they don't want to hike too far too quickly."

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 1.78 points, or 0.01 percent, to 18,869.92, the S&P 500 .SPX had gained 7.22 points, or 0.33 percent, to 2,184.16 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC had added 27.73 points, or 0.52 percent, to 5,322.31.

MSCI's all-country world stock index .MIWD00000PUS was up 0.3 percent, while Europe's STOXX 600 rose 0.6 percent.

In the U.S. bond market, the yield curve steepened after the U.S. data suggested the labor market is tightening and inflation is beginning to gain traction.

That prompted investors to sell government debt with longer-dated maturities.

U.S. consumer prices posted their biggest increase in six months in October, while housing starts surged to a 9-year high and jobless claims fell to the lowest since November 1973.

The 10-year note US10YT=RR fell 15/32 in price to yield 2.275 percent.

Overseas, the Bank of Japan offered to buy unlimited bonds for the first time under a revamped policy framework as domestic debt yields surged in the wake of Trump's election victory.

More broadly, Japan's efforts will raise questions about how far central banks such as the European Central Bank and others will be willing to tolerate steep and sudden rises in government borrowing costs.

Oil prices were higher as expectations of an OPEC deal to limit production outweighed global oversupply concerns. Brent crude oil LCOc1 was up 11 cents a barrel at $46.74, while U.S. crude CLc1 was up 6 cents at $45.63.  Viewers,

NEW YORK Global stock indexes rose along with the U.S. dollar on Thursday after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank could raise interest rates "relatively soon."

Yellen, who testified on the economic outlook before the congressional Joint Economic Committee, indicated little had changed following the victory of Donald Trump in the Nov. 8 U.S. presidential election.

She said she intended to serve out her term, which ends in 2018, and indicated the Fed remained on track to raise rates at its meeting next month.

Expectations have been high among investors that the Fed will raise rates in December.

The dollar receded earlier in the day from a 13-1/2 year peak, though it turned higher after upbeat U.S. economic data stoked expectations of an acceleration in U.S. economic expansion in the fourth quarter.

The dollar index .DXY, tracking the greenback relative to a basket of six foreign currencies, extended gains in U.S. afternoon trading following Yellen's comments and was last up 0.5 percent.

U.S. stocks, which rallied after Republican Donald Trump's surprise White House win on the potential for economic stimulus, edged up, led by a 1.3 percent gain in financials .SPSY, which benefit from higher rates.

"A December rate hike is priced in. A number of Fed speakers have indicated that and they want the market to be prepared for when they do," said Erik Wytenus, global investment specialist at J.P. Morgan Private Bank.

"The Fed, though, is sensitive to the strength of the dollar and they don't want to hike too far too quickly."

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI was up 1.78 points, or 0.01 percent, to 18,869.92, the S&P 500 .SPX had gained 7.22 points, or 0.33 percent, to 2,184.16 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC had added 27.73 points, or 0.52 percent, to 5,322.31.

MSCI's all-country world stock index .MIWD00000PUS was up 0.3 percent, while Europe's STOXX 600 rose 0.6 percent.

In the U.S. bond market, the yield curve steepened after the U.S. data suggested the labor market is tightening and inflation is beginning to gain traction.

That prompted investors to sell government debt with longer-dated maturities.

U.S. consumer prices posted their biggest increase in six months in October, while housing starts surged to a 9-year high and jobless claims fell to the lowest since November 1973.

The 10-year note US10YT=RR fell 15/32 in price to yield 2.275 percent.

Overseas, the Bank of Japan offered to buy unlimited bonds for the first time under a revamped policy framework as domestic debt yields surged in the wake of Trump's election victory.

More broadly, Japan's efforts will raise questions about how far central banks such as the European Central Bank and others will be willing to tolerate steep and sudden rises in government borrowing costs.

Oil prices were higher as expectations of an OPEC deal to limit production outweighed global oversupply concerns. Brent crude oil LCOc1 was up 11 cents a barrel at $46.74, while U.S. crude CLc1 was up 6 cents at $45.63. Thanks.

Fears over global populist revolt push up Italy's debt costs

Hello Dear Viewers,

MILAN Concerns that Italy could become the next nation to be hit by a global populist revolt, which could sink Matteo Renzi's premiership in a referendum next month, drove its borrowing costs to their highest for over a year on Friday.

Growing anger at the political mainstream in 2016 has seen Americans elect Donald Trump to the White House this week and Britons vote in June to leave the European Union.

It has also boosted support for anti-establishment parties in other countries in Europe and beyond, and could aid Italy's own 5-Star Movement as it seeks to wreck Renzi's attempts to win backing for constitutional reforms in the Dec. 4 referendum.

The prime minister has staked his political future on the vote over his plans, which would reduce the role of the Senate and take back power from the regions. At the start of his campaign he repeatedly pledged to quit if he lost, but in recent months has refused to confirm this.

Investors see an increasing chance of voters rejecting his measures, which could lead to a period of political upheaval.

Government bond yields jumped to their highest levels since mid-2015 at an auction that failed to reach its planned maximum size as demand for riskier longer-dated bonds wavered.

With one of the world's largest public debt piles, Italy's borrowing costs are closely watched as a potential flashpoint for market instability in the wider euro zone.

They risked spiraling out of control during the sovereign debt crisis until European Central Bank President Mario Draghi pledged in July 2012 to do whatever it took to save the euro.

As well as investor concerns over the referendum, Italian bonds - like others around the world - have also been hit by expectations that Trump's plans to cut taxes and spend on infrastructure would boost global inflation.

French bonds also fell victim to rising political risks this week as the country nears presidential elections next year when the far-right Front National is hoping to benefit from populist discontent.

"A victory for Front National leader (Marine) Le Pen would certainly put the EU's future in question," Credit Suisse said in a note, adding the chances of this happening were very low.

'DEMOLITION MAN'

Opinion polls suggest Italian voters will reject Renzi's reforms. Pollsters, however, got it badly wrong in both the U.S. presidential election and the Brexit vote.

Ironically Renzi himself has appealed to anti-establishment anger, earning the nickname "Demolition Man" when he took power in 2014 for pledges to destroy old political structures. But critics say he has not delivered on his promises.

The 41-year-old prime minister is trying to present the constitutional reform as a break with the past and entrenched powers.

"The referendum is a chance for Italians to choose change and a simpler system that costs less, or to keep the current one, bringing back to power the old guard that has already failed," he said in a broadcast on Facebook this week.

Carlo Galli, a deputy who left Renzi's Democratic Party (PD) for a small left-wing group last year, said the premier was "desperately" trying to show he was not part of an elite.

"It's bizarre to maintain that someone who has sat in Palazzo Chigi (the prime minister's office) for three years is not one of the elite," Galli told La Repubblica newspaper.

'RISING TENSIONS'

In Friday's bond sale, the Treasury sold 6.9 billion euros ($7.5 billion) of bonds, drawing demand for 1.5 times that amount but missing its upper target.

Weak appetite for the bonds due in 2040 and 2047 marked a shift in market mood just over a month after Rome attracted strong demand with its first-ever sale of a 50-year bond.

"Today's auction, with weaker demand at the longer end of the yield curve, is probably one of the first signs of rising tensions on Italy's debt ahead of the referendum," IG strategist Vincenzo Longo said.

Standard & Poor's on Friday confirmed its BBB- rating on Italy with a stable outlook, while cutting its growth forecasts for its chronically sluggish economy to 0.9 percent from 1.1 percent this year and to 0.8 percent from 1.3 percent for 2017.

S&P said the constitutional reform could help political stability and effectiveness, but a rejection of the referendum would not be significant for Italy's creditworthiness unless it led to a reversal of structural reforms.

Rival ratings agency Fitch last month downgraded Italy's outlook to negative from stable, citing its weak growth and high debt as well as the political uncertainty.

Rome has already covered 96 percent of its funding needs for this year but debt management chief Maria Cannata has warned large redemptions next year will make refinancing tough. Thanks.

UPDATE 1-UK's Labour has 'bottom line' for supporting Brexit vote -Corbyn

Dear Viewers,

LONDON The head of Britain's opposition Labour Party will try to block divorce talks with the European Union if the government does not agree to Labour's Brexit demands, potentially leading to an early national election, a newspaper said on Saturday.

Jeremy Corbyn told the Sunday Mirror that Labour's "Brexit bottom line" would require guarantees for access to the EU's single market for exporters, continued protection of workers' rights, safeguards for consumers and the environment and pledges that Britain would make up any loss of EU capital investment.

England's High Court dealt Prime Minister Theresa May a setback on Thursday when it ruled that the decision to begin formal talks about leaving the EU needed to be approved by parliament.

The government has said it will appeal the decision but should it have to hold the vote, the ruling Conservative Party may struggle to get the majority it needs because some of its own members have concerns about the terms of Brexit.

"We are not challenging the referendum. We are not calling for a second referendum," Corbyn told the Sunday Mirror. "We're calling for market access for British industry to Europe."

May told other EU leaders on Friday she believed the court ruling would be overturned and said she would stick to her timetable of starting the Brexit negotiations before the end of March.

The Labour Party supported the "Remain" campaign ahead of the June 23 referendum.

In his interview with the Sunday Mirror, Corbyn said he was looking forward to the possibility of an election before the next scheduled national poll in 2020.

"If the government calls an election we're ready for it," he said. "We have the members, the organization and the enthusiasm. We welcome the challenge."

Separately on Saturday, another newspaper quoted May as saying there would be no going back on the government's Brexit plan, despite the setback in the High Court and calling on pro-EU lawmakers and judges to accept the outcome of the referendum.

"Instead of re-fighting the battles of the past, we should be focusing on how we can come together as a country to make the most of this great national opportunity and forge a bold, confident, global future for Britain," May wrote in the Sunday Telegraph. Thanks.

MILAN Oct 23 Italy's Economy Minister Said

Dear Viewers,

MILAN Oct 23 Italy's economy minister said on Sunday the European Union must choose between allowing Rome to raise its deficit to cope with a recent earthquake and the migrant crisis, or the "Hungarian way" of putting up barriers, which he said would spell doom for the bloc.

"Europe must choose which side to take. They can accept the fact that our deficit goes up from 2 percent to 2.3 percent (of gross domestic product) to tackle the earthquake and the migrant emergencies," Pier Carlo Padoan told la Repubblica daily in an interview.

"Or they can choose the Hungarian way, which puts up walls against the migrants and must be rejected. That would be the beginning of the end."

The Italian government has been stepping up an anti-Brussels rhetoric after unveiling an expansionary 2017 budget plan last week ahead of a referendum on constitutional reform that may decide Prime Minister Matteo Renzi's political future.

The budget hiked previously agreed targets for the budget deficit and the public debt, with Rome insisting it needs fiscal leeway to deal with the migrant crisis on its Mediterranean borders and reconstruction after a huge earthquake in August.

The European Commission has numerous concerns about the plan and is considering sending Rome a warning letter, officials have said.

In a further blow for the government, Fitch Ratings agency cut its outlook for Italy on Friday, saying weak growth, high debt and the uncertain outcome of the Dec. 4 referendum posed risks to the euro zone's third-largest economy. Fitch said Italy's track record of "repeated delay and back-loading of fiscal consolidation reduces credibility."

Padoan said Italy had spent more money than any other European state to deal with the inflow of migrants and refugees.

"So far no one has recognised our financial commitment ... It's a political problem, that concerns the future of the continent," he said.

Renzi was even more defiant on Friday, saying he will not be swayed by the EU and will not change the budget law. "We want to address the needs of Italian citizens, not Brussels technocracy," he said.

Opinion polls suggest Renzi may lose the referendum on his plan to reduce the role of the Senate and centralise decision making. But he has packed the budget with potentially vote-winning measures.


MILAN, Oct 23 Storage rooms crammed with loan documents have emerged as a hidden front line in Italy's battle to save its banks from the threat of financial crisis.

 LONDON, Oct 23 Britain could slash corporation tax to 10 percent if the European Union refuses to agree a post-Brexit free trade deal or blocks UK-based banks from accessing its market, the Sunday Times reported, citing an unidentified source. Thanks.