GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, Mexican peso advance ahead of U.S. election results

Dear Viewers,

NEW YORK Global equity markets climbed and the Mexican peso rallied on Tuesday as investors leaned toward the potential victory of Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton in the U.S. presidential election.

Markets turned higher after treading water for the early portion of the session, although U.S. equities retreated from their session highs.

While the dollar strengthened slightly against a basket of currencies, the Mexican peso shot to a two-month high versus the greenback.

The Mexican currency has been a market proxy for sentiment over the U.S. election and has performed in inverse correlation with Republican candidate Donald Trump's perceived chances of winning the White House. The iShares MSCI Mexico ETF, touched its highest level since mid-August and was last up 2.2 percent.

Mexico is considered most vulnerable to Trump's planned trade policies as 80 percent of its exports go to the United States.

Market participants cited projections from data firm Votecastr, which showed Clinton in the lead in several battleground states.

"The Votecastr thing is absolutely helping the market move higher," said Kim Forrest, senior equity research analyst at Fort Pitt Capital Group. "Investors will take whatever data they can get, although I really don’t know how accurate the data is."

The market has been pricing in a win for Clinton, including a 2 percent jump in the S&P 500 on Monday after the FBI maintained its view that no criminal charges were warranted in a probe over her email practices.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 70.29 points, or 0.38 percent, to 18,329.89, the S&P 500 gained 6.1 points, or 0.29 percent, to 2,137.62 and the Nasdaq Composite added 20.03 points, or 0.39 percent, to 5,186.20.

Safety play gold weakened, down 0.3 percent to $1,276.65 an ounce and yields on U.S. Treasuries touched a one-week high.

At the end of a bruising election campaign, the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation poll gave Clinton a 90 percent chance of defeating Trump and said she was on track to win 303 Electoral College votes out of 270 needed, to Trump's 235.

Europe's index of 300 leading shares, which posted its biggest gain in two months on Monday, closed 0.3 percent higher. MSCI's all-country world index was up 0.4 percent after notching its best day since late June on Monday.

Clinton, generally seen as a known quantity, has been the preferred candidate for investors over political wild card Trump. But markets remained wary, noting Britain's shock vote in June to leave the European Union had caught investors and pollsters off guard.

"I’d be a little hesitant to waive the all clear signal at this point," said Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury notes fell 11/32 in price to yield 1.8672 percent after touching a high of 1.876 percent, up from Monday's 1.828 percent. Thanks.

US STOCKS-S&P set to snap losing streak after strong jobs report

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Wall Street gained modestly on Friday after a strong U.S. employment report as investors sought bargains after a spate of selling sparked by uncertainty over the impending U.S. elections.

The S&P 500 was on track to snap a streak of eight straight days of declines, which had been the benchmark's longest run of down days since the 2008 financial crisis. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was also on pace to snap an eight-session losing streak.

Over its losing streak, the S&P 500 had fallen nearly 3 percent. Investors have been unnerved by signs of a tightening presidential race between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump, after Clinton had until recently been thought to have a clear lead.

"Investors are buying anything that looks like a dip and that is because the fundamentals continue to be pretty good even though I think there is a lot of anxiety about next week’s election," said Kate Warne, investment strategist with Edward Jones in St. Louis. "With the pullback, I think investors are seeing some bargains out there."

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI rose 5.24 points, or 0.03 percent, to 17,935.91, the S&P 500 .SPX gained 3.78 points, or 0.18 percent, to 2,092.44 and the Nasdaq Composite .IXIC added 5.47 points, or 0.11 percent, to 5,063.88.

U.S. employers maintained a strong pace of hiring in October and boosted wages for workers, the Labor Department report on Friday showed. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs last month amid gains in construction, healthcare and professional and business services.

While that was below economists' forecast for growth of 175,000 jobs, solid labor market fundamentals were underscored by revisions to August and September data, which showed 44,000 more jobs created than previously reported.

"The upward revisions over the last two months suggest that the overall picture is continued job growth," Warne said. "That means that consumers have more money and that should continue to support economic growth."

For the year, the S&P 500 is up 2.5 percent.

In an encouraging sign for stocks, S&P 500 companies are on pace to increase earnings by 3.9 percent in the third quarter, ending a four-quarter streak of profit declines, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Higher-than-expected quarterly profits from biotech company Regeneron (REGN.O) and health insurer Humana (HUM.N) lifted those companies' shares along with the S&P healthcare sector .SPXHC, which was the best performing group on Friday.

Advancing issues outnumbered declining ones on the NYSE by a 1.55-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 1.75-to-1 ratio favored advancers.

The S&P 500 posted 4 new 52-week highs and 13 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 28 new highs and 126 new lows. Thanks.

WRAPUP 5-Strong U.S. job growth, rising wages boost Dec rate hike prospects

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WASHINGTON U.S. employers maintained a strong pace of hiring in October and boosted wages for workers, which could effectively seal the case for a December interest rate increase from the Federal Reserve.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 161,000 jobs last month amid gains in construction, healthcare and professional and business services, the Labor Department said on Friday. The closely watched employment report was published four days before the Nov. 8 presidential election.

The solid labor market fundamentals were also underscored by revisions to August and September data, which showed 44,000 more jobs created than previously reported. Average hourly earnings rose 10 cents or 0.4 percent in October.

As a result, the year-on-year gain in wages last month rose to 2.8 percent, the largest in nearly 7-1/2 years.

"This was a very good report. With the hourly wage number beginning to accelerate, the Fed will have all the cover it needs to raise rates in December," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania.

The report came on the heels of data last week showing an acceleration in economic growth in the third quarter. Businesses have created 15.5 million jobs since 2010, with almost half of them high wage jobs. Even Americans holding low-income jobs are starting to experience wage gains.

Economists said that could provide a lift to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton against her Republican rival Donald Trump as the race for the White House tightens and becomes increasingly bitter and divisive.

Speaking in Pittsburgh on Friday Clinton hailed the 73 straight months of job gains and took a swipe at Trump's tax proposal, which she said would to give the biggest tax breaks in history to wealthy Americans.

"I believe in growth from the middle out and bottom up. When the middle class thrives, America thrives," said Clinton. "Donald Trump believes in something different. He wants an economy that works for him."

Trump dismissed the low unemployment rate and other economic data as "phony."

"These numbers are absolute disaster. Nobody believes the numbers anyway. The numbers they put out are phony," Trump told supporters in Atkinson, New Hampshire.

Though the U.S. central bank is expected to increase borrowing costs at the Dec. 13-14 policy meeting, that decision will likely depend on the outcome of Tuesday's election.

Financial markets view Clinton as the candidate of the status quo, while many investors fear that a Trump victory would carry risks to global trade and growth.

The dollar was trading almost flat against a basket of currencies, while U.S. Treasuries were higher. U.S. stocks rose, with the S&P 500 index on track to snap its eight-day losing streak.

The unemployment rate fell one-tenth of a percentage point to 4.9 percent last month, in part as people dropped out of the labor force. A broad measure of unemployment that includes people who want to work but have given up searching and those working part-time because they cannot find full-time employment fell two-tenths of a percentage point to an 8-1/2 year low of 9.5 percent.

The Fed on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged but said its monetary policy-setting committee "judges that the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has continued to strengthen." It lifted its benchmark overnight interest rate last December for the first time in nearly a decade.

TREND HAS SLOWED

The trend in employment growth has slowed as the labor market nears full employment and the economy's recovery from the 2007-09 recession shows signs of aging.

Employment growth so far this year has averaged 181,000 jobs per month, down from an average gain of 229,000 per month in 2015. Still, the monthly job gains are more than enough to absorb new entrants into the labor market.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said the economy needs to create just under 100,000 jobs a month to keep up with growth in the work-age population.

October's rise in average hourly earnings added to September's 0.3 percent gain. The year-on-year increase was the biggest advance since June 2009 and followed a 2.7 percent rise in September.

"This is good news for the average worker who's probably seeing a little more in their paychecks, spending a little more freely, or maybe even starting to save a little for retirement," said Scott Anderson, chief economist at Bank of the West in San Francisco.

The Fed on Wednesday struck a fairly upbeat note on inflation, saying price pressures had "increased somewhat since earlier this year."

Still, wage growth remains moderate and economists blame this on a low labor force participation rate.

The participation rate, or the share of working-age Americans who are employed or at least looking for a job, fell 0.1 percentage point to 62.8 percent last month, not too far from multi-decade lows, in part reflecting demographic changes.

The solid payrolls gain accompanied by the surge in wages could support consumer spending heading into the holiday season, and in turn keep the economy on a relatively higher growth path.

While the household survey showed a large increase in the number of people saying they could not get to work because of bad weather, the department said it was difficult to assess the impact of Hurricane Matthew on job growth last month.

The storm lashed the east coast of the country last month, causing extensive flooding. The average workweek held steady at 34.4 hours.

Construction payrolls increased 11,000, rising for a second straight month. But manufacturing employment fell 9,000 last month, falling for a third straight month.

Retail sector employment surprisingly fell 1,100 jobs, despite anecdotal evidence retailers had embarked on early hiring for the holiday season.

Professional and business services payrolls rose 43,000. Healthcare and social assistance employment increased 39,100 last month. Temporary-help jobs, a harbinger for future hiring, increased 6,400. Government employment rose by 19,000 jobs. Thanks.

FOREX-Dollar slumps against euro, jumps against peso on potential Trump win

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NEW YORK The U.S. dollar hit its lowest level in more than three weeks against the euro, yen, Swiss franc and sterling on Wednesday on nervousness about a potential victory for U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump next week.

Investors are rethinking long-held bets on a Nov. 8 victory for Democrat Hillary Clinton. Clinton held a 5 percentage point lead over Trump, according to a Reuters/Ipsos opinion poll released on Monday, but some other polls showed her Republican rival ahead by 1 to 2 percentage points.

The dollar index .DXY, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was last down 0.3 percent at 97.403, after falling 0.6 percent to 97.178, its lowest level since Oct. 11.

The Mexican peso tumbled to a more than one-month low against the greenback, at 19.4667 pesos MXN= per dollar, on fears of how a Trump victory could hurt the Mexican economy.

Clinton is viewed as the candidate of the status quo, while there is greater uncertainty over what a Trump victory might mean for U.S. foreign policy, international trade and the domestic economy.

"There is a huge amount of unknown unknowns around Trump," said Richard Franulovich, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp in New York.

The euro EUR= was last up 0.3 percent at $1.1088 after rising 0.6 percent in afternoon trading to $1.1123, its highest level since Oct. 11. Against the yen the dollar was down 0.7 percent, at 103.40 yen, after falling 1 percent earlier to 103.03 yen, its lowest level Oct. 10.

The dollar was last down 0.2 percent against the Swiss franc CHF=, at 0.9733 franc, after earlier falling about 0.6 percent to 0.9695, its lowest level in roughly a month.

The dollar pared losses after the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged in its last policy decision before the U.S. election, but signaled it could hike rates in December as the economy gathers momentum and inflation picks up.

The move in the dollar was mild, analysts said, because U.S. political uncertainty largely overshadowed the central bank's statement.

The Mexican peso suffered MXN= a roughly 1.4 percent drop against the dollar. A possible Trump victory has been viewed as a key risk for the Mexican currency given the candidate's promises to clamp down on immigration and rethink trade relations.

"The peso weakening is a reflection of the increase in momentum from the polls favoring Trump," said Mazen Issa, senior currency strategist at TD Securities in New York. Thanks.